U.S. Hotel Revenue Projected to Grow in 2026 and 2027
Skift Take
CoStar forecasts modest U.S. RevPAR and ADR growth through 2027—with luxury and upper upscale segments leading—despite real RevPAR remaining below 2019 levels.
Mizuho downgraded Hilton to Neutral from Outperform. They cited valuation for the downgrade while upping the target price to $263 from $243. Mizuho feels there is limited upside to Street estimates in 2025 and 2026, and the stock’s valuation is full.
Truist reported on a conference call they hosted with CoStar. While CoStar expects U.S. RevPAR growth of 1.8% in 2025, with 1.6% ADR growth, for 2026 and 2027, they are forecasting further 2.1% and 2.2% RevPAR growth, respectively. Adjusted for inflation, they expect Real RevPAR growth versus 2019 to be down 6.6% in 2025, down 6.8% in 2026, and down 7% in 2027. Luxury and Upper Upscale are expected to lead RevPAR growth in 2025 at 2.9% and 3%, respectively. CoStar expects Midscale and Economy RevPAR to be down -0.7% and up 0.3% in 2025, respectively.
STR reported U.S. lodging data for the week ended 2/1. RevPAR rose 4.1%, with occupancy up 2.3%. Group RevPAR was up 7.7%.
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