Alan Woinski

CBRE U.S. Hotels State of the Union (October 2023) shows August RevPAR declined by -0.7%, with a -1.7% occupancy drop. Total revenue growth outpaced RevPAR growth in July by 2.5%. U.S. loan origination decreased, and hotel job openings continue to decline. Hotel rates are expected to rise globally in 2024, with potential increases of up to 17.5% in some cities, according to American Express Global Business Travel's Hotel Monitor 2024. The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index was down -2% in September. Year-to-date, the Hotel Brand sub-index increased by 23%, while the Hotel REIT sub-index decreased by -1.5%.

Outbound travel from China surged significantly during the National Day Holiday, led by younger Chinese travelers. Indonesia became the top source market for Singapore's monthly visitor arrivals, with Chinese visitors staying longer on average. The Postcard Hotel is set to open India's most expensive hotel in Ranthambore and plans to launch several more hotels in 2024.

Macau's Golden Week holiday saw a surge in visitors, with over 932,000 arrivals and high hotel occupancy rates, mainly driven by mainland Chinese tourists. Indonesia plans a significant expansion in its tourism sector, aiming to attract up to $8 billion in investments for specific destinations. Several new hotel properties by Accor and Hilton are announced in countries including Australia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia.

Stock market indices showed gains on Friday, with DJIA up by 288 points, Nasdaq up by 212 points, and S&P 500 up by 50 points, while the 10-year treasury yield increased to 4.78%. San Francisco saw a significant increase in weekday occupancy, and STR reported a 66.3% occupancy rate for US hotels in September 2023. Several new hotels and renovations were announced, including Aloft Hotel near Fort Lauderdale, Residence Inn in Vail, and the Union Station Nashville Yards.

Jefferies downgraded Marriott Vacations to "Hold" from "Buy" and reduced their target price, expressing concerns over the macroeconomic outlook, particularly in consumer credit and interest rates. The 2023 survey from the Hospitality Asset Managers Association indicates optimism about RevPAR's return to 2019 levels, while various hotels announce new completions, renovations, and sales across the U.S. Key personnel appointments are announced in major hotel groups, and international brands like Wyndham, Accor, and Hyatt unveil expansion plans and new properties in locations such as Barbados, France, and Spain.

Macau's Golden Week visitation exceeded expectations, with 769,000 people visiting in the first six days. RKM Enterprises opened Ramada by Wyndham Goa in North Goa with various amenities. Radisson Hotels Group plans to introduce its top luxury "Radisson Collection" in India and expand the Radisson RED brand in the country.

U.S. hotel industry saw positive growth in RevPAR and rates for the week ending September 30, with Group RevPAR showing significant improvement. Rosewood Hotels & Resorts is expanding its branded residence portfolio especially in Europe. Various hotel projects and developments are underway in different locations, including downtown Springfield, Norfolk, San Antonio, Beaufort, and Las Vegas, with a range of amenities and timelines.

Philippines sees over 4 million foreign tourist arrivals in 9 months, exceeding tourism spending targets. Thailand's visa-free travel policy for Chinese tourists results in a 30% increase in hotel bookings, approaching 2019 levels. Various developments in the hotel and tourism industry, including a new skyscraper in Tokyo and changes in travel intentions worldwide.

Wedbush initiated coverage on lodging REITs, with Ryman Hospitality and Host Hotels receiving Outperform ratings and price targets of $94 and $19, respectively. Park Hotels and Pebblebrook Hotel Trust were initiated with Neutral ratings and price targets of $13 and $14, respectively. Keybanc downgraded Airbnb's rating to Sector Weight from Overweight. A report by Morning Consult indicates that the "revenge travel" trend may be declining, with travel intentions increasing in some countries but declining in others, particularly in Europe. China is experiencing a significant surge in travel, driven by pent-up demand.

In Vietnam, foreign tourist arrivals for the first nine months of 2023 increased significantly by 4.7 times compared to the previous year, with a 13.4% decrease in September from August. Cambodia witnessed a 251% year-on-year increase in foreign visitors for the first eight months of the year, targeting 4.5 to 5 million arrivals in total for the year. Macau's visitor arrivals during Golden Week exceeded 150,000 on the third day, with plans for Galaxy Macau Phase 4 to open in 2026 with fewer hotel rooms than initially planned.