Arkansas

Baird’s 2023 REIT Outlook Is Cautious

Lodging stocks were higher with the only big mover of note once again being AHT, up another 6%. Baird gave their 2023 Hotel REIT outlook saying they are taking a more balanced approach in early 2023 as macroeconomic risks and growing expense pressures keep them selective. STR announced U.S. lodging data for the week ended January 7th. Year over year RevPAR was up 21.8% on easy comps due to holiday/school timing and the Omicron outbreak last year.

Weakening or Strengthening? Hotel Performance Forecasts 

Raymond James warned that inflation and a dimming economic outlook could begin to weigh on travel starting in the fourth quarter. STR and Tourism Economics adjusted occupancy slightly downward but maintained previous projections for ADR and RevPAR in their final U.S. hotel forecast revision of 2022. Following seasonal patterns, Canada’s hotel performance fell from the month prior but the ADR and RevPAR were higher than the pre-pandemic comparables

REITs Remain Cautious About Corporate Travel

MCG and INN both were up 6% while SVC and SLNA were up 5% each. SOND fell -5% on the day. Xenia Hotels & Resorts announced its board of directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $100 million of the company’s outstanding common shares. With the additional authorization U.S. lodging REIT management teams did express concerns about cracks in demand forming with technology customers soon after recent layoff announcements.

Los Cabos, Mexico’s Growth Attracts More Hotel Brands

Lodging stocks were mostly lower. SOND was up 6% but that was pretty much it for any type of positive movement.  MCG fell another -11%, SLNA was down -7%, SOHO and ABNB both fell -5%. JP Morgan lowered their rating on Membership Collective Group to Neutral from Overweight. JPM said their downgraded was based on MGC’s exposure to Europe. Los Cabos Tourism Board announced unprecedented growth in tourism arrivals is expected by the end of 2022 with more than 3.3 million visitors.