Michigan

CBRE Raises Forecast for Hotel Performance in 2023

Earnings rolled out at a rapid pace with  Hyatt, Wyndham, Host and Hersha reporting results. Hyatt reported above expectations and sounded very confident on the conference call. The lodging stock star of the day was definitely  Service Properties Trust . SVC owns nearly 8% of Travel Centers of America and RMR has 1.67%. Travel Center agreed to be bought by BP for $1.3 billion. CBRE is raising its forecast for hotel performance on the heels of industry gains in Q4 2022 and the expectation of slightly positive GDP growth in 2023.

Hyatt's Grand Ambitions for 2023

Lodging stocks were higher. SLNA topped the list with a 10% gain followed by AHT and VCSA, both up 6%. We start today’s newsletter on a sad note as many of you probably heard that Bruce White , the founder and chairman of White Lodging , passed away at the age of 70. Pebblebrook Hotel Trust gave a January operations update and include an update on 4Q preliminary results. Remember they roiled the Lodging REIT stocks when they preannounced weaker than expected 4Q results.

U.S. Hotel Construction Increased in December

After 25 consecutive months of year-over-year declines, U.S. hotel construction increased slightly in December. Wells Fargo cut their price target on Airbnb to $130 from $165. They maintained their Overweight rating. STR said US hotel RevPAR the week ended 1/14 was up 33.1%. RevPAR was up 9.4% versus the same week in 2019.

Ryman Hospitality Ends Year on High Note

Yesterday, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust lowered guidance for 4Q results and shook up the industry a bit. Today, Ryman Hospitality did the opposite. Lodging stocks were mostly lower with a long list of new lows, many of them REITs. New lows were set by PEB, PK, AHT, SHO, XHR, ABNB and VCSA Marriott International announced that long-time executive Stephanie Linnartz is leaving the company, effective February 24, 2023.

U.S. Rates Are Higher But Not Back to 2019

Airbnb saw its rating cut at Baird to Neutral from Outperform. Baird lowered their price target to $100 from $120. The U.S hotel industry reported higher performance from the month prior but weakened comparisons with 2019 , according to October 2022 data from STR . Through Q3 2022 , the U.S. hotel industry exceeded 2019 RevPAR levels by 6.4%, based on data from STR.

REITs Remain Cautious About Corporate Travel

MCG and INN both were up 6% while SVC and SLNA were up 5% each. SOND fell -5% on the day. Xenia Hotels & Resorts announced its board of directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $100 million of the company’s outstanding common shares. With the additional authorization U.S. lodging REIT management teams did express concerns about cracks in demand forming with technology customers soon after recent layoff announcements.

The Current State of Vacation Ownership

The DJIA rose 56 points while Nasdaq was up 162, the S&P 500 rose 35 points and the 10 year treasury yield fell .07 to 3.80%. Lodging stocks were modestly higher. Truist published a report on Vacation Ownership following 3Q results from the public companies involved in the segment. Genuine Hospitality announced the opening of Tru by Hilton Naperville Chicago , the first Tru by Hilton in Illinois.

Lodging Stocks Surge With Broader Market Gains

Let’s go backwards to give you an overview of today’s market. The 10-year treasury yield plunged 0.32 to 3.83%. That is a nearly 8% drop in the yield on a modestly better CPI report. Vacasa reported 3Q results that went over as well with investors as their weak fourth quarter guidance. The LWHA Q3 2022 Major U.S. Hotel Sales Survey includes 119 single asset sale transactions over $10 million which totaled roughly $3.7 billion.

Selina Surges on First Day of Trading

Lodging stocks had a good day, with Selina’s first day of trading leading the way, surging to a close of $40.90. Hersha Hospitality , Accor and Travel + Leisure reported results with TNL getting the worst reviews . Selina and BOA announced the closing of their business combination which was approved by BOA stockholders on October 21, 2022.