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Wells Fargo Expects Hotels Exposed to Group and Leisure to Thrive in 2024

Wells Fargo predicts a stabilization in interest rates in 2024, benefiting hotel sector growth, with a focus on high-end leisure and Asia Pacific markets. Oppenheimer raised the target price for Host Hotels, and Driftwood Capital secured a significant refinancing loan for Hilton Cocoa Beach Oceanfront Hotel. There were key personnel changes in various hotel groups, such as Concord Hospitality and Great Wolf Resorts, indicating a focus on business development and wellness.

U.S. Average Daily Rates Continue Increase

The  DJIA  fell 285 points,  Nasdaq  was down 174, the  S&P 500  fell 38 points, and the 10-year treasury yield was down nearly .10 to 3.91%. Let’s hope the first two trading days do not represent the rest of the year. STR’s  global “bubble chart” update through December 16, 2023 showed 75% of markets with growth in RevPAR compared to 2019. Could there be a hotel building moratorium in one of the most popular areas of Southern Florida?

JP Morgan Re-Ranks Many Hotel Stocks

JP Morgan upgraded Choice Hotels to Neutral and shifted Host Hotels, Park Hotels, Ryman Hospitality, and Sunstone Hotels to Neutral, citing less downside in lodging REITs. CoStar forecasts U.S. hotel demand growth of 1.8% in 2024, with occupancy increasing by 1% and room rate growth aligning with inflation, leading to RevPAR growth of 4.8% this year and 4% in 2024. Barclays shifted to Equal Weight on Marriott Vacations, expressing uncertainty in company-specific execution and favoring Hilton Grand Vacations in the timeshare sector.

Dolly Parton Could Open a Nashville Hotel 

Truist reports that lodging companies aren't experiencing recession-driven demand declines, with strong group and individual business but weak domestic leisure. Dolly Parton may be venturing into Nashville's hotel market with a $75 million building acquisition, and Toftrees Golf Resort in Pennsylvania announces a $50 million renovation. A new $175 million development in Mishawaka, Indiana, includes apartments, townhomes, and a 125-room hotel.

Latest Data on U.S. Hotel Performance

U.S. Hotel Industry Performance (Oct 2023): Shows mixed results with slight declines in occupancy (-1.8%) and EBIDTA PAR (-1.2%), but increases in ADR (+3.0%), RevPAR (+1.2%), TRevPAR (+4.0%), GOPPAR (+3.7%), and LPAR (+5.9%). Hyatt plans over 35 new luxury hotels by 2025 across its brand portfolio. Other notable openings include Auberge Resorts' Bowie House in Texas, Six Senses Xala in Mexico, Riu Palace Pacifico's refurbishment in Mexico, and new Universal Orlando resorts.