San Francisco

Choice Is Pursing Wyndham

The big news was a rumor with the Wall Street Journal reporting Choice Hotels is making a move to acquire Wyndham Hotels & Resorts . Truist upped their price target on Hyatt Hotels to $149 from $145. This follows H’s Investor Day and the tours of Apple Leisure Group resorts. Pebblebrook Hotel Trust gave their monthly update saying for 2Q23, overall demand and profitability trends continue to remain within expectations .

CBRE Raises Hotel Performance Forecast for 2023

STR reported US RevPAR for the week ended May 13 was down -1.3% year over year, possibly impacted by Mother’s Day timing. CBRE is again raising its forecast for hotel performance this year . The company has revised its forecast for 2023 RevPAR to $97.89, up 6.0% YOY and an increase of $0.43 from its previous forecast. Hilton announced the opening of Canopy by Hilton San Francisco SoMA .

Marriott Blows Past Analyst Expectations

Marriott International blew away estimates and like Hilton , reported a great earnings report on a not-so-great day in the market. Ashford Hospitality Trust reported 1Q results, more or less in line with expectations on the hotel level. Marriott, Hilton and IHG continue to dominate the U.S. hotel construction pipeline according to the recently released United States Construction Pipeline Trend Report from Lodging Econometrics.

Record Sign-Ups for Hotel Loyalty Programs

Heading into the upcoming 1Q earnings season, JP Morgan said they expect relative upside in 1Q23 RevPAR results and, for the C-Corps, at least in-line net rooms growth with both operating metrics benefiting from improvements in China. A record number of loyalty program members should help hotel brands lower their customer acquisition costs, increased direct-to-consumer engagement and offset any occupancy shortfalls during an economic downturn. Corporate travel spending is tracking toward full recovery to 2019 levels by 2024 or 2025 , but higher costs and climate concerns will keep trip volumes smaller than pre-pandemic levels in real terms.

Red Roof to Add 50 Properties This Year

Red Roof will open 50 properties, new builds and conversions , in 2023, representing 60% year-on-year growth. The Greater Las Vegas Short-Term Rental Association wants the Supreme Court to rule on the constitutionality of short-term rental regulations in Clark County, Nevada. The newly minted penny stocks, VCSA and SOND, both traded down to new lows, dropping another -4% and -7% respectively. SLNA hit a new low, down another -7%.

Hotel Winners and Losers in RevPAR Rankings

Lodging stocks were mixed but the big movers were all to the downside. SLNA traded down another -7% to another all-time low. VCSA and MCG were both down -6%. Service Properties Trust kept its positive momentum going, reporting a 159% increase in normalized FFO in 4Q22. Xenia Hotels & Resorts reported 4Q results slightly ahead of expectations but gave a mixed 2023 outlook.

Accor’s Optimistic Outlook

Marriott Vacations missed expectations with their 4Q report, primarily due to their exchange and rental businesses as their core VOI business outperformed. Chatham Lodging Trust reported an in-line 4Q for EBITDA. They did not give 2023 guidance. Accor reported good results and forecast higher RevPAR for 2023 , very optimistic due to the return of the Chinese traveler.

Great Wolf Opening Largest Property to Date in Maryland

Lodging stocks were higher. ABNB led the group with a 7% rise while MCG was up 5%. Raymond James upped their price target on Hilton to $165 from $150. They maintained their Outperform rating. Ian Schrager and Ed Sheetz have stepped in to possibly partner with Chetrit Group , to rescue its landmark Bossert Hotel , located in Brooklyn Heights, New York.

Hyatt's Grand Ambitions for 2023

Lodging stocks were higher. SLNA topped the list with a 10% gain followed by AHT and VCSA, both up 6%. We start today’s newsletter on a sad note as many of you probably heard that Bruce White , the founder and chairman of White Lodging , passed away at the age of 70. Pebblebrook Hotel Trust gave a January operations update and include an update on 4Q preliminary results. Remember they roiled the Lodging REIT stocks when they preannounced weaker than expected 4Q results.